We humans have a love/hate relationship with uncertainty. We like a certain degree of it in our lives. We like to say that “variety is the spice of life.”
But, too much of it can paralyze us with fear…
Here are a few facts about this disease that might help you face the uncertainty…
An important thing to understand about this highly contagious disease is its basic reproduction number, or R-naught (R0). In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. All individuals (at least all of those who haven’t already caught it and recovered) are susceptible to COVID-19. There is no vaccine for COVID-19, nor any human immunity.
Scientists have estimated COVID-19’s R0 as between 1.5 and 3. Compare that to the measles, which has an R0 of 12 – 18. The higher the R0 is, the harder it is to control an outbreak. The goal of all the social distancing, hand-washing and testing being mandated is to bring the R0 down to under 1. Once it’s under 1, the spreading will decrease (the curve will flatten and begin to show a downward trend), hopefully long enough to develop a vaccine and kill the damn thing off once and for all!
The other thing we sort of have a handle on with COVID-19 is its fatality rate. It seems to be around 2%, even though in some places, like Italy, the experience has been almost double that (Italy has a much older general population that the U.S.). Compare that rate to the fatality rate of the common flu (around .1%) or ebola (from 25 to 90%). While it’s much worse than the flu, it’s still not that high. Most who get sick will recover and develop an immunity against it, which will also make the rate of spread go down.
I am no expert, but I’ve certainly been trying to understand all the hoopla concerning this virus. The statistics above give me cause for both concern and hope.
The R0 of this infection is not insurmountable. We can get on top of it, as we have with other infectious viruses with similar R0’s (SARS and MERS come immediately to mind). The question is how fast and how much damage will it do in the meantime. The answer is quite a lot, although judging by the fatality rate for this virus, the vast majority of those who succumb to it will recover. Even so, it’s alarming to think that 2% of the potentially millions infected could die from this, if we don’t get a handle on it quick and reduce that R0.
Even though there’s uncertainty in the health risk posed by COVID-19, that risk doesn’t worry me as much as the risk of the havoc it will wreak on healthy lives, especially economic havoc, while we take drastic and economically paralyzing measures to deal with said health risk.
I sell real estate in Costa Rica…to foreigners, for the most part. Will the real estate market here be affected by this? It already is. When a country completely closes its borders to entry of all foreigners, it tends to greatly decrease my customer base!
So, the short-term negative effect is a certainty. The uncertainty is, how short (or long) will short-term be?
I can, at least, fantasize some silver-linings in this cloud over the longer term. But I don’t know when, if ever, they might actually materialize to my economic benefit.
However, this is not a post about COVID-19’s impact on the real estate market in Costa Rica. It’s being written to help me and you deal with the hardest thing about COVID-19…the uncertainty it has inspired. The stock market has gone down almost 20% due to that uncertainty.
So, how best can we cope with the hardest thing about COVID-19?
And looking at this as a chance to make a positive impact on your species, certainly helps…
One sure way not to do that is to become overwhelmed with worry, either about getting sick, or about how this event might affect your pocket-book. A self-centered retreat, reflected in actions like hoarding toilet paper, will not help you reduce the mental anguish of uncertainty, I don’t believe.
My last post was entitled COVID-19: A Viral Perspective. In that one I discussed how COVID-19 is sharpening our focus concerning the risks posed by things like Globalization, Capitalism Run Amok, the ascent of Fake News, and the presidency of Donald J. Trump…
COVID-19 might be humanity’s chance at getting some things right that have gone awfully wrong in the last few decades. I have written in the past on how I feel that greed is at the root of many of our problems. What I mean by greed is the tendency for humans to prioritize self-interest over selfless impact…
Stay tuned…
You see, as a result of this microscopic parasite we’re all of a sudden being asked to dramatically alter our lifestyle…for the good of others.
And that’s exactly what this blog’s been about for the last, ah, six odd years. In a nutshell, what we’re being collectively faced with is the need for impact mindfulness. We can either embrace it, or go on living a purely self-interested way (hoarding toilet paper) and millions will probably die.
So, it’s pretty much completely up to us, as far as the health impacts go…
Yes, COVID-19 will most likely lighten our wallets, reduce our portfolios, and may even force us to skip a fancy dinner or two…
But that might be a small price to pay for the enlightenment that can potentially come via our adopting impact mindfulness as a habit in our daily lives.
As I also said in my previous post, habits, especially life-style altering ones, are hard to instill. It always helps to have a darn good reason…
Our salvation just might qualify as one…
What do you think?
[…] The Hardest Thing About COVID-19: Uncertainty […]